Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 0.014988 0.016979 0.019139 0.021658 0.024515 0.027657 0.031375
2025-07-06 0.011309 0.013916 0.016988 0.020880 0.025684 0.031427 0.038827
2025-07-13 0.009904 0.012896 0.016627 0.021628 0.028170 0.036455 0.047776
2025-07-20 0.008844 0.012059 0.016258 0.022155 0.030246 0.040991 0.056402
2025-07-27 0.008085 0.011475 0.016083 0.022822 0.032459 0.045796 0.065752
2025-08-03 0.007224 0.010623 0.015412 0.022671 0.033444 0.048913 0.072949
2025-08-10 0.006552 0.009952 0.014900 0.022653 0.034552 0.052227 0.080659
2025-08-17 0.005887 0.009213 0.014200 0.022253 0.035006 0.054548 0.087009
2025-08-24 0.005477 0.008815 0.013962 0.022516 0.036467 0.058484 0.096184
2025-08-31 0.005027 0.008305 0.013496 0.022357 0.037213 0.061315 0.103781
2025-09-07 0.004769 0.008080 0.013456 0.022871 0.039082 0.066089 0.114998
2025-09-14 0.004304 0.007464 0.012718 0.022142 0.038774 0.067179 0.119956
2025-09-21 0.003961 0.007034 0.012264 0.021877 0.039270 0.069733 0.127825
2025-09-28 0.003573 0.006491 0.011571 0.021129 0.038845 0.070633 0.132796
2025-10-05 0.003458 0.006425 0.011710 0.021883 0.041200 0.076705 0.147896
2025-10-12 0.003320 0.006302 0.011731 0.022418 0.043181 0.082240 0.162465
2025-10-19 0.003211 0.006224 0.011825 0.023092 0.045478 0.088550 0.179116
2025-10-26 0.003004 0.005940 0.011508 0.022940 0.046140 0.091744 0.189796
2025-11-02 0.002832 0.005709 0.011271 0.022921 0.047059 0.095506 0.201964
2025-11-09 0.002631 0.005402 0.010861 0.022516 0.047149 0.097592 0.210781
2025-11-16 0.002518 0.005267 0.010782 0.022783 0.048654 0.102699 0.226528
2025-11-23 0.002371 0.005046 0.010511 0.022621 0.049231 0.105896 0.238364
2025-11-30 0.002300 0.004981 0.010557 0.023142 0.051324 0.112504 0.258432